Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
